 Olesya Ryzhova questions the efficacy of the Western approach in imposing democracy on the Uzbek regime and points to the failure of the American foreign policy even as the US government lavishes millions of dollars on its democratization programs in Central Asia.
There is little space for the discussion of possible developments in Uzbekistan in the aftermath of the May 2005 Andijon crisis. The United States no longer has any interest in Uzbekistan and there is no hope for democratization anytime in the near future. To some this may seem like the end of a short democracy-building episode in the history of independent Uzbekistan. Indeed, ever since Uzbekistan officially joined the US-led war on terrorism in 2002, some remarkable, at least by post-Soviet standards, progress on democratic reform and market liberalization has been achieved. In the opinion of one Russian expert on post-Soviet Central Asia, V Khlyupin, Uzbekistan's leadership has exhibited an unprecedented degree of flexibility and openness to modernization immediately upon the establishment of the US military presence in Uzbekistan. In particular, the sudden shift in official government policies was vividly evidenced by the conduct of a referendum on bicameral parliamentary reform in 2002 and the filing of a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court by the Ministry of Internal Affairs officer against the Uzbek President himself in 2001.
However, dissatisfied with the pace and the quality of the reforms undertaken by the Uzbek government, the US began to push for a greater degree of commitment from the Uzbeks and demanded their full compliance with its obligations under the treaties and declarations signed. By placing high expectations on the Uzbek leadership, the American government has failed to take into the account the realities on the ground. The US is quashing the little good they could bring to the impoverished population of Uzbekistan because of its overweening desire to get things done the American way, i.e. by going the "fast and short" track. The Americans failed to impose democratization on Uzbekistan in a shortcut way, so they have chosen to put up a huge show to make the Uzbek government feel ashamed. As the Uzbek government usually shows little sign of repentance and improvement the US will possibly pull out of the region and leave it all for the Russians to resolve, at least for now. In addition; America and Europe could possibly join efforts in punishing the unruly Uzbek regime: they will simply show the Uzbeks how much they hate them and teach then a lesson on how to be civilized. Their contempt will likely be expressed in the form of diplomatic and economic sanctions. Unfortunately, those will have little effect on the Uzbek government because it will be able to get around them with the help of Russians and the Chinese.
The inefficacy of the American approach has become especially evident in light of the refusal of the Uzbek government of an independent inquiry into the Andijon events. This revealed an exceedingly ephemeral nature of the US foreign policy towards Uzbekistan; they used Uzbekistan for a short period of time with the sole purpose of supporting military operations in Afghanistan. Now that such support is not necessary the US decided to withdraw from the country using the refusal of the Uzbek government to cooperate as sufficient consideration and an excellent excuse for closing down most of its operations from military to humanitarian to educational. The few effective US-sponsored programs that have been functioning successfully up to date are now being deprived of funding or have been closed down entirely in the past one and a half months. The funding for the Internet Access and Training Program (IATP) in Fiscal Year 2006 has gone considerably down by more 80 percent, as it has in many other Former Soviet Republics. The underlying reason for such urgent, radical measures may well be the fact that the US government itself realizes how sloppy its policies have been when it comes to democratization of authoritarian regimes in the region. The dubious nature of the newly established democratic government in Kyrgyzstan is a good example of what the unbalanced US policy can bring about. Perhaps the Americans are not willing to make a long-term commitment to promoting democracy in the region. Its preferred mode of activity here is a "democratization at any cost" model which seemed to have worked just fine in countries like Ukraine where the people were willing and prepared to embrace the change wholeheartedly. The traditional scenario would be creating chaos in a target country by stirring mass-scale riots and demonstrations, blowing it all out of proportion and finally leaving it to the locals to deal with the drastic consequences. Central Asia presents a different case for analysis, however, with its tribalism and ethnic and regional separatist tendencies all contributing to the destabilization and disintegration if the states are to suddenly adopt soft policies in place of the tough ones used now.
The US has already contributed significantly to the destabilization of the decaying post-communist regimes by setting up color revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. The fast-spreading epidemic of color revolutions could potentially lead to the unleashing of the destructive forces that have so far remained relatively inactive. The Andijon situation has demonstrated not only the people power but also the regional power, the fact that the Ferghana Valley's elites got bold enough to challenge the central government's authority to rule over their destinies. As always, this is all about money and power, something the regional shadow economy oligarchs are no longer willing to share with the central government in Tashkent.
In Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev openly discusses the nature of color revolutions and considers them an instrument for certain groups to seize power and redistribute the wealth of the nation by first deprivatizing and then gaining into their private possession the major economic objects and assets. In Kyrgyzstan, the new president Bakiev demonstrates how deeply concerned and aware he is of clan politics and tribalism in Central Asia by signing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Declaration which, among other things, calls for the removal of US military bases from the Central Asian region. Redistribution of wealth is something that no one in Central Asia except for pseudo-democrats is interested in. Economic instability incurred by this process will make ordinary people lose the few assets they have accumulated. The fear of losing the little they have is what makes them hold on to the status quo.
Tribalism and clan loyalty have a major impact on the political, economic and social developments within the Central Asian republics and will most likely continue to gain more strength as the Soviet values gradually give way to nationalist, and mostly regionalist, sentiments. What is at stake here is not democracy but the very integrity of the states themselves. The republics run the risk of being split into separate regional segments. The southern part of Kyrgyzstan and the Uzbek Ferghana Valley could potentially form an independent territorial entity and further proclaim itself a sovereign state. Of course, such developments would inevitably be accompanied by violence and thousands of civilian casualties. If dealing with just of one the -stans has proved to be unbearably hard, one can only imagine how much effort it would take to address the problems of, say, a dozen of smaller, yet similar, regional entities. With regard to Uzbekistan, in particular, it can be stated with confidence that the pseudo-democratic movements such as the Sunny Uzbekistan Coalition and the like will be unable to keep such disintegration tendencies under control. Therefore, even from a purely theoretical perspective a green revolution in Uzbekistan cannot be considered a key to resolving the existing regional tensions. Unless economic improvements are introduced nothing can prevent a major depression from hitting Uzbekistan full blast.
What is required of the current regime at this point is regional cooperation in fighting poverty and unemployment. Russia could have a crucial role to play in this process by acting as a mediator and resolving conflicts between the countries. Most importantly, the Russian government will have to invest generously into the economies of the Central Asian republics in order to have its way in the regional politics.|
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Written by Rustam on 2006-04-22 21:37:56
From the start I would like to point out that it is the first time that I am in your blog, could not leave without commenting on the article “The return of the Big Brother puts an end to the pseudo-democracy practices in Uzbekistan” by Olesya Ryzhova.
I am an Uzbek, have lived for more than 20 years in Uzbekistan and currently temporarily out of the country. Having read the article I can say one thing and one thing only – absurd.
Olesya writes - “The traditional scenario would be creating chaos in a target country by stirring mass-scale riots and demonstrations, blowing it all out of proportion and finally leaving it to the locals to deal with the drastic consequences. Central Asia presents a different case for analysis, however, with its tribalism and ethnic and regional separatist tendencies all contributing to the destabilization and disintegration if the states are to suddenly adopt soft policies in place of the tough ones used now” – totally wrong assessment of the situation. How can you make such a sweeping statements about the US Foreign Policy in Central Asia or in the FSU, what evidence is there for you to make such a statement, do you see chaos in Georgia, Ukraine or in Kyrgyzstan for that matter, how could you characterize the situation in these countries to be “blown out of proportion” and did the US leave the Georgia, Ukraine or the Kyrgyzstan, you really believe that these countries no longer posses strategic importance for the US Foreign Policy in the corresponding regions? Ms. Ryzhova could you bring forward any facts that would support your “analysis” that there is an active ethnic or separatist tendencies in CA, in which country, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan or Uzbekistan? Apart from Xingjian nothing! Did Kyrgyzstan fall apart when, as you suggest, “state suddenly adopted soft policies”?
“The Andijon situation has demonstrated not only the people power but also the regional power, the fact that the Ferghana Valley's elites got bold enough to challenge the central government's authority to rule over their destinies. As always, this is all about money and power, something the regional shadow economy oligarchs are no longer willing to share with the central government in Tashkent” – totally wrong assessment of the events in Andijon, shows total lack of knowledge about current political situation in Uzbekistan. What local elites, who and when, how dare they. For your information in Uzbekistan only one elite – President Karimov, his daughters, the ministers and the members of his apparatus as well as the “law enforcement”, regional governors appointed by him, that he favours, to certain level that he allows them to be “elites” and no one else, others are no one. Uzbekistan is not Russia and even not Kazakhstan in this matter! Oligarchs – I advice you to read more about the privatization process in Uzbekistan and about Uzbek economy in general in order not to make such obvious wrong assessments, the tragedy of Uzbekistan is that we do not have Chubais, Berezovskiy, Potanin and etc, who were financially independent and could stand up and criticise the government.
“The southern part of Kyrgyzstan and the Uzbek Ferghana Valley could potentially form an independent territorial entity and further proclaim itself a sovereign state. Of course, such developments would inevitably be accompanied by violence and thousands of civilian casualties” – where did you get this paranoid theory of yours. What suggests that people in the region, 100% Uzbeks would want to separate from Uzbekistan or from Kyrgyzstan for that matter? Do you have any indicators of the opinions of the people in the region to suggest this astonishing theory? Why makes you believe that these people would want to break free from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan now when they did not do so after the collapse of the Soviet Union when they had perfect circumstances, nationalistic sentiments in their pinnacle and weak governments, and suddenly would decide to do so now?
Please if you take CA, Uzbekistan especially, as your object of “analysis”, be more careful, try to learn more and write based on facts not on biased view towards Russia.
| Written by Laurence Jarvik on 2005-08-14 13:14:44
Very interesting article...
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